Ukrainian servicemen of the 148th Separate Artillery Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces, fire a M777 howitzer toward Russian troops near a front line, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine May 1, 2024. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko/File Photo
For Ukrainian gun commander Oleksandr Kozachenko, the delivery of U.S. ammunition cannot come soon enough as he and his comrades endeavor to repel continuous Russian assaults. Kozachenko’s unit, equipped with a U.S.-supplied M777 howitzer that previously discharged 100 shells daily, now frequently manages fewer than ten. “It is a luxury if we can fire 30 shells,” he noted.
The United States has pledged to expedite the supply of ammunition and weapons to Ukraine following the recent approval of a $61 billion aid package by Congress. However, as of early May, two artillery units visited by Reuters on the eastern frontline reported that they were still awaiting an increase in supplies, operating significantly below the necessary levels to counter Russian forces. Soldiers from Kozachenko’s 148th Separate Artillery Brigade and the 43rd Artillery Brigade in the Donetsk region expressed urgent need for more 155mm rounds for their Western artillery, which had previously provided a strategic advantage.
In recent months, Russian forces, which greatly outnumber and outgun the Ukrainian defenders, have launched multiple offensives across the eastern Donbas region and along the northeastern border. This renewed aggression marks a critical juncture in the conflict, which began with Russia’s full-scale invasion over two years ago. According to Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with Black Bird Group, a Finnish-based volunteer group analyzing satellite imagery and social media content, Russia has secured more territory in 2024 than it lost during Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. Specifically, Moscow’s forces have captured 654 square kilometers since the start of the year, compared to the 414 square kilometers lost to Ukraine between June 1 and October 1 of the previous year. Since May 2 alone, Russia has gained 222 square kilometers.
The Russian defense ministry did not respond to requests for comment, and the Ukrainian military provided no immediate response.
Colonel Pavlo Palisa of Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanised Brigade, operating near the strategically significant city of Chasiv Yar, suggested that Russia is preparing a major offensive to breach Ukrainian lines in the east. This sentiment was echoed by the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, who recently predicted a critical phase in the war over the next two months as Russia seeks to capitalize on delays in weapon supplies to Kyiv. “Without a doubt, this will be a difficult period for the armed forces,” stated Palisa, asserting that the Kremlin aims to capture the entire Donbas industrial region by year’s end.
Cities such as Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk, which serve as key military hubs for Ukraine, face increasing threats from advancing Russian forces. Residents of these cities, including school teacher Nina Shyshymarieva, express deep uncertainty and fear as Russian artillery positions draw closer. “We live only for today,” said Shyshymarieva, noting that the nearest Russian positions had moved from approximately 20 kilometers away at the start of 2024 to just 14 kilometers.
Interviews conducted by Reuters with over a dozen soldiers, commanders, residents, and evacuation volunteers in eastern Ukraine over the past two weeks depict a landscape of profound uncertainty. Much of the Donetsk region, part of the larger Donbas area, is subjected to daily bombardments, with towns and cities frequently targeted by Russian artillery or air strikes. Regional governor Vadym Filashkin confirmed that attacks occur at least a dozen times daily.
Volunteer rescuer Oleksandr Stasenko reported an increase in evacuation requests from settlements such as Kostiantynivka and Kurakhove. Russian forces have advanced toward Kurakhove, gaining 2-3 kilometers along the eastern road this year. “Wherever the front line is approaching, people in those places are trying to leave as soon as possible,” said Stasenko, noting that his group, East SOS, evacuates around two dozen people weekly, many of whom are elderly or infirm.
Ukraine must defend approximately 1,000 kilometers of frontlines in the east, north, and south. The fiercest battles of 2024 have centered around Chasiv Yar, which commands significant high ground and lies west of the devastated city of Bakhmut. Russian advances near Chasiv Yar and further south around Ocheretyne could threaten critical logistical routes, exposing key roads to Russian fire. A major highway leading west out of Kostiantynivka is already at risk, and severing it would jeopardize supply lines to transit hubs such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
The recent Russian offensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region risks diverting Ukrainian forces from the eastern front, further straining their defense capabilities. Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at Black Bird Group, stated that the Kharkiv operation aims to create confusion and tie down Ukrainian reserves. Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at RUSI, predicted that Russia would continue to attack northern and southern points of the frontline to stretch Ukrainian defenses.
A new law strengthening Ukraine’s mobilization efforts, effective May 18, may take several months before fresh recruits can reinforce the frontlines. Despite the anticipated arrival of American ammunition and weapons, the challenges remain formidable. “I would say that it is unlikely that time is on our side, since a long war requires more resources,” said Colonel Palisa, emphasizing the need to impose significant costs on Russia quickly. “The enemy’s resources, whether in terms of manpower or materiel, cannot be compared with ours. That is why a long war, I think, is not in our favor.”
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